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Anyone that's been watching Fox or listening to AM talk radio as their primary news source for the last 4 years is gearing up for the biggest "anyone but him" campaign ever. They're going to call that Tuesday in November the one day between recovery and the apocalypse. Even a lot of otherwise apolitical people have a vague notion that everything bad is because of the President. On the other side, liberals are not very excited about voting for an establishment Democrat that has expanded the war on terror, cut social spending, maintained loopholes for the rich and subsidies for super-profitable oil companies, expanded the use of illegal drone strikes and used the feds to crack down on dispensaries that are legal at the state level - basically, liberals are lukewarm on Obama because he's feels too much like a conservative.
The result is that Romney MIGHT be able to win, which is tragic in a classic way - Obama thought he'd win by being an "Eisenhower Democrat," by being the kind of republican people would have loved in the 90s, right down to his health care reform plan, a carbon copy of the giveaway to insurance companies that was the much touted compromise republicans offered instead of Bill Clinton's plan in 1992, and the model for Romney's plan. By not sticking to the character he created during his 2008 campaign, by abandoning progressive ideals in a bid to attract conservative voters, he has only alienated himself from his base and has not won over any conservatives that consider Joe Scarborough their most liberal commentary source.
Maybe he was waiting for the right time to "evolve". Polls show most people want marijuana legalized, don't think the government should make all abortion legal, don't think birth control is illegal, don't think we should be at war all the time, don't think the government should be allowed to blow a citizen up without a warrant, don't think we should be spied on or detained indefinitely without a trial, and don't think we should be presumed guilty at random traffic stops or when we're trying to fly to visit grandma. Basically, liberals and conservatives agree that we're not a fan of a police state. The biggest disagreements between either side of the political spectrum are economic and social issues, and Obama has been right of center on all of that. With the economy and employment the biggest issue for voters now, Obama's goal for the election will be to prove that what he has done has worked and that what he wants to do is better than what Romney wants to do.
On social issues he's winning as much as a democrat can - that is, there are certain single-issue voters on the conservative side of the spectrum who won't stop breathing fire until every gay person is in a re-education camp and sperm is granted the same rights as people. Knowing Republicans would fight him on absolutely anything, even if it was a good idea, he got them to fight him over contraception (beginning the 'war on women' meme). He started his first term signing the Lilly Ledbetter Equal Pay for Equal Work act, and he's approaching the end of this term having reversed Don't Ask Don't Tell and signaling that he supports recognition of same sex civil unions as deserving all the same government perks as recognized marriages. The polls favor him on these. Romney, meanwhile, is courting votes from people concerned about the creeping darkness of the "homosexual agenda" whatever that is.
On economic issues it's a murkier question. He's been doing a lot of what Republicans traditionally stand for, it isn't really working, and the economic recovery has been sluggish and top-heavy because of it. Despite being depicted as a socialist in conservative media, Obama has only hardly been Keynesian, and his biggest giveaways haven't been to people but to big money interests, especially wall street. The debates will be interesting... well, they'll be brutal. Romney will choke, I will bet on it, and he will fall on empty talking points at every turn, which will snowball his choking. KeystoneXL might come up, as it has in campaign ads for example - "why did you cave to environmentalist activists at the cost of jobs and kill the Keystone XL pipeline?!" Romney will stutteringly ask, and Obama will remind him simply that he approved half of the pipeline but the EPA, at the request of owners of small farms (what, do you hate rural communities?), had asked for a longer period of environmental impact review of another portion of the pipeline and the Republicans demanded Obama say "yes" or "no" within some arbitrary window instead, so he said no... but despite overwhelming popular support AGAINST Keystone XL, Obama is allowing for an alternative route to be considered for environmental impact review. So, like, where's the controversy here?
Still, the only way for the "anyone but Obama" people to lose is if the "anyone but Romney" people come out in force.
 
 
 
 
 
 
speaking of Obama vs Romney debate, someone who went to school with both of them agrees with me, Romney will get "smoked;" http://www.thedaily.com/page/2012/05/29/052912-news-romney-obama-classmate-1-3/